Wafer prices continue to fall, with weak downstream demand [SMM Weekly Review]

Polysilicon: This week, the price index for N-type polysilicon was 34 yuan/kg, with N-type recharging polysilicon priced at 33-36 yuan/kg. Overall polysilicon prices remained stable. Market transactions this week were extremely limited, mostly involving shipments following deals made last week. Currently, market sentiment remains bearish, with the polysilicon market focusing on July's production schedule. There are numerous "rumors" in the market, and major producers have limited confirmed capacity directions. July's production schedule still holds some uncertainties.

Wafer: This week, the price of N-type 183 wafers was 0.85-0.88 yuan/piece, 210R wafers were priced at 1.01-1.03 yuan/piece, and 210 wafers were priced at 1.2-1.25 yuan/piece. Wafer prices continued to weaken, with some 183 manufacturers lowering prices to 0.85 yuan. Leading manufacturers began quoting prices at 0.88 yuan. The overall decline in 183 prices was relatively large due to demand impacts. July's wafer production schedule, affected by falling prices, saw further declines in production economics, prompting multiple wafer enterprises to plan production cuts.

Cell: For P-type cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC 182 solar cells was 0.265-0.27 yuan/W, a 5.96% decrease from early June. The domestic market continued to shrink, with export demand becoming the main support. Some manufacturers have initiated dynamic production line adjustments, adopting a flexible strategy of "producing based on sales." For N-type cells, firstly, TOPCon high-efficiency solar cells: 183N were traded at low prices within the 0.23-0.24 yuan/W range, 210RN had mainstream transactions at 0.26 yuan/W, with a range of 0.255-0.265 yuan/W, and 210N had mainstream transactions at 0.25-0.255 yuan/W. Secondly, HJT solar cells: HJT 30% silver-clad copper (with 25% or higher efficiency) had mainstream quotations of 0.35-0.36 yuan/W, remaining stable recently.

TOPCon solar cells continued their downward trend this week, with the price differences among the three sizes starting to be erased by supply-demand imbalances. Compared to early June, the current average prices of 183N/210N/210RN have plummeted by 7.11%/4.53%/2.99% respectively. The double pressure of price transmission in the industry chain and weak demand has driven prices to new lows. Focusing on this week's price changes, 183N has reached the bottom after rapid declines in the early stage, showing signs of stabilization. 210N's downward trend is difficult to halt due to narrowing demand, with profits continuing to thin, approaching the industry's average cash cost warning line. 210RN has started a supplementary decline due to increased supply. It is expected that the solar cell market will remain unoptimistic next week. Against the backdrop of an unimproved supply-demand pattern, the solar cell market will still face pressure, and whether prices can stabilize and rebound depends on the intensity and speed of the industry chain's proactive supply adjustments.

PV Module: This week, some small factories reduced PV module prices by 1-2 cents/W, while large factories' PV module prices remained stable overall. The price range of modules saw a faster decline in the low end than the high end, with market transaction price spreads continuing to widen. Orders among module manufacturers have diverged, with only a few manufacturers experiencing a slight increase in production schedules, while most have gradually reduced their module scheduled production, though the magnitude of these adjustments has been relatively small. From the perspective of the dealer market, prices are high but transactions are scarce, with quotations continuing to decline. Although there may be some retrofitting of distributed projects in the July market, overall, the demand side remains pessimistic

PV Glass: This week, quotations from PV glass enterprises have continued to decline. As of now, the mainstream quotation for 2.0mm single-layer coated PV glass in the domestic market is 11.0 yuan/m², with some enterprises reducing their quotations to 10.8 yuan/m², and the lowest transaction price dropping to 10.5 yuan/m². The mainstream quotation for 3.2mm single-layer coated PV glass is 18.5 yuan/m², and the mainstream quotation for 2.0mm back-side PV glass is 10.8 yuan/m². This week, domestic PV glass prices have continued to fall. Although some glass enterprises have begun to reduce production by blocking kiln openings recently, the overall glass supply in June has still increased slightly due to the impact of the capacity expansion from previously started production kilns. Moreover, the demand side has seen a significant supply surplus of domestic glass due to the decline in module production, leading to a continuous rise in inventory levels at glass enterprises. Under the pressure of high inventory, glass enterprises have started to offer discounts to take orders, resulting in a continuous decline in glass transaction prices. However, the current prices have caused significant losses for glass enterprises. It is expected that the variation in the mainstream price range of glass will be limited in the future, with only a slight downward shift expected in the center of some transaction prices.

High-Purity Quartz Sand: This week, domestic quotations for high-purity quartz sand have remained stable. The current market quotations are as follows: 60,000-68,000 yuan/mt for inner-layer sand, 31,000-42,000 yuan/mt for middle-layer sand, and 17,000-24,000 yuan/mt for outer-layer sand. This week, the transaction prices for spot orders from domestic traders of imported sand have only dropped slightly. The significant decline in prices earlier has strengthened the resistance of domestic producers. Although the demand side continues to weaken, the supply of domestically produced sand has also been continuously declining, with some enterprises starting to convert their outer-layer sand production capacity to produce tube-drawing materials. However, with the recent downward shift in the center of crucible transactions and the impact of subsequent low demand, it is expected that the sentiment supporting the prices of domestically produced sand will begin to decline. Meanwhile, long-term contract prices for imported sand in H2 are expected to be finalized, with prices also expected to decline. Therefore, it is expected that high-purity quartz sand prices will continue to show a downward trend in the future.

EVA: This week, the price of PV-grade EVA is in the range of 9,500-9,750 yuan/mt. Recently, downstream film manufacturers have been stockpiling EVA, and petrochemical plants have received a good number of orders. The prices of foaming materials and cable materials have both increased to varying degrees. On the supply side, some petrochemical enterprises have switched to maintenance production, leading to a tightening of PV-grade EVA supply. In the short term, driven by both tight supply and an increase in demand-side orders, the price of PV-grade EVA may rise slightly. However, in the long term, as some petrochemical enterprises switch to producing PV-grade EVA, the supply-demand pattern is expected to become looser, and prices may come under pressure.

Film: The mainstream price range for EVA film is 12,300-12,500 yuan/mt, while the price range for EPE film is 13,900-14,000 yuan/mt. This week, PV film prices remained weak and stable. Module companies are paying close attention to the price trend of PV-grade EVA on the raw material side. In the long term, as some petrochemical companies switch to producing PV-grade EVA, the price of PV-grade EVA may come under pressure and decline. The cost-side support is weak, and the production schedule of modules on the demand side falls short of expectations. Under the dual pressures of cost and demand, the new order prices for film in July may also come under pressure and decline.

POE: The domestic delivery-to-factory price of POE ranges from 11,300 to 14,000 yuan/mt. The production schedule of modules on the demand side is declining, and demand is weak. On the supply side, with the release of new capacity in the later period, the supply-demand pattern is gradually easing. Under the dual squeeze of weak demand and increased supply, the price of PV-grade POE is expected to decline weakly.

Terminal: This week, the procurement capacity of the PV terminal market increased. According to SMM statistics for the week, domestic enterprises won a total of 9 PV module projects, with a total procurement capacity of 404.09 MW, an increase of 280.20 MW compared to the previous week. In terms of prices, due to insufficient effective price samples that could be collected this week, there may be significant deviations in the calculation results based on limited data. To ensure the accuracy and reliability of information disclosure, it has been decided not to disclose the price data for this period. Disclosure will resume once the sample size meets statistical requirements.

Major bid-winning information during the statistical period from June 9, 2025, to June 15, 2025:

1. In the section for the 3,700 KWP distributed PV project of Liangshan Company in Chun'an County, Zhejiang Post and Telecommunications Engineering Construction Co., Ltd. won the bid for 3.7 MW of solar cell modules, with a specific price of 10.323 million yuan.

2. Guangzhou United Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. won the bid for 625 JA Solar N-type modules in the announcement of the winning candidates for the roof-mounted distributed PV power generation installation project (PV modules) procurement-inquiry procurement of Jiameida (Yingde) Toys Co., Ltd. The power of the winning product is 625 W, with a total capacity of 0.39 MW.

3. In the "Announcement of the Shortlisted Candidates for the Procurement Project of Solar Cell Modules for the Weichang Saiyunxi 400 MW PV Project of PowerChina Chongqing Engineering Corporation", the bid evaluation (project number: P0 WERCHINA-0135-250094) has been completed.

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